Variance and small samples
Over a few picks, luck dominates. A tipster can go 8-for-10 and still be a coin flip underneath. The fewer the settled picks, the less a win rate or ROI tells you about what comes next.
Recent form vs long-term record
Recent form shows momentum; the long-term record shows skill. TipStaq shows both, with time windows, so a good month never gets mistaken for a proven edge.
The minimums we use
To avoid ranking noise, TipStaq applies sample-size gates:
- At least 25 settled picks before a tipster is ranked by ROI.
- At least 10 settled picks before a sport or category is highlighted.
- At least 5 settled picks before recent form is shown.
Frequently asked questions
How many settled picks is enough?
There is no magic number, but more is better. TipStaq does not rank a tipster by ROI until they have at least 25 settled picks.
Why hide metrics for new tipsters?
With too few settled picks, a number is more likely to mislead than inform. We show a clear 'not enough data yet' state instead of a noisy figure.